Week 12 & Season-to-date Recap
Solid Week 12 with +3.64 units, and we’ve got a wonderful holiday slate of games on tap in Week 13. We sit up just over 21 units through 12 weeks, so let’s get to it.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 30-28-1 (+5.92 units)
- Props
- 61-61 (+15.1925 units)
- Total
- 91-89-1 (+21.1125 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 13 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF/CLE | Browns +5.5 | 105 | Caesars | 1 |
| 2 | LAR/CAR | Rams -10 | -115 | DK | 1 |
| 3 | BUF/PIT | Over 45 | -110 | 365 | 1 |
Week 13 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning or over the weekend.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC/DAL | Isiah Pacheco u33.5 rushing yards | -145 | MGM | 1 | Pacheco returns this week, but we should get a split favoring Kareem Hunt here with a splash of Brashard Smith in the backfield. The Cowboys have sneakily been a strong run defense after getting healthy and adding at the deadline, so they should take to the air often, leaving very few touches for Pacheco. |
| 2 | GB/DET | Christian Watson o51.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Watson is averaging 2.10 YPRR since his return this season, and he's become the featured weapon in the Packers passing games with his strong play and injuries all around him. The Lions are a major pass funnel and should force the Packers to be aggressive through the air. |
| 3 | GB/DET | Christian Watson o3.5 receptions | 125 | 365 | 1 | Watson is averaging 2.10 YPRR since his return this season, and he's become the featured weapon in the Packers passing games with his strong play and injuries all around him. The Lions are a major pass funnel and should force the Packers to be aggressive through the air. |
| 4 | KC/DAL | Patrick Mahomes o266.5 passing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Piggybacking on the Pacheco point above, the Chiefs should take to the air early and often. They lead the NFL in PROE, and the Cowboys present a pass funnel defense with an offense that can push the Chiefs to be aggressive. They're also playing for their playoff lives. |
| 5 | CIN/BAL | Mitchell Tinsley o20.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | While JaMarr Chase is back, Tee Higgins is out with a concussion, and when the Bengals finally went to Tinsley later in their Week 12 game, he showed up for a huge touchdown catch. He finished with 2/29/1, but he ran the 2nd-most routes on the team, and he's an intriguing young talent at a cheap price on this small slate. We also have a little mini narrative street with Joe Burrow back, as Burrow was pushing hard for Tinsley to make the team during his impressive camp and preseason. |
| 6 | CIN/BAL | Mitchell Tinsley o2.5 receptions | 190 | Fanatics | 0.5 | While JaMarr Chase is back, Tee Higgins is out with a concussion, and when the Bengals finally went to Tinsley later in their Week 12 game, he showed up for a huge touchdown catch. He finished with 2/29/1, but he ran the 2nd-most routes on the team, and he's an intriguing young talent at a cheap price on this small slate. We also have a little mini narrative street with Joe Burrow back, as Burrow was pushing hard for Tinsley to make the team during his impressive camp and preseason. |
| 7 | CIN/BAL | Keaton Mitchell o21.5 rushing yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Justice Hill was ruled out for this week's game. While Justice's absence as the 3rd down back doesn't have a perfect translation for Mitchell, as Rasheen Ali will fill some of that, it will expand his role nonetheless. We know he can hit a home run on any touch, and the Bengals run defense is... not great, Bob. |
| 8 | DEN/WAS | RJ Harvey o12.5 rush attempts | -130 | DK | 1 | Harvey more or less took over the Dobbins role last game with 65% of RB carries, but the raw count didn't end up too high. In a likely positive game script against a poor Commanders run defense, he should have a higher volume (& efficiency) day here. |
| 9 | DEN/WAS | RJ Harvey o51.5 rushing yards | -120 | BetRivers | 1 | The Washington defense has plummeted to Bengals and Giants levels of bad this year overall, and they're near the bottom of the league in run defense. Harvey should have success + volume in a positive game script. |
| 10 | DEN/WAS | RJ Harvey 60+ rushing yardrs | 131 | DK | 1 | Harvey ladder. |
| 11 | DEN/WAS | RJ Harvey 70+ rushing yards | 222 | DK | 0.25 | Harvey ladder. |
| 12 | DEN/WAS | RJ Harvey 80+ rushing yards | 360 | DK | 0.25 | Harvey ladder. |
| 13 | SF/CLE | Dylan Sampson anytime TD | 950 | MGM | 0.25 | Largely a numbers play. Every other book is far lower than this number, plus Jerome Ford is questionable and Sampson received significant positive coach speak this week after his big play last week. |
| 14 | SF/CLE | Harold Fannin o3.5 receptions | -115 | MGM | 1 | The Niners are one of the teams capable of putting some points on the board on the Browns defense, which should get some added volume for Fannin and the pass game. He had 6 of 20 targets last week, and he has at least 4 targets in every game this season. |
| 15 | NO/MIA | Devin Neal o3.5 receptions | 105 | Caesars | 1 | 7 targets last week for Neal with Kamara leaving that game with an injury. He should be the featured back here, while playing on passing downs in a likely negative game script. |
| 16 | NO/MIA | Mason Tipton o2.5 receptions | 145 | 365 | 1 | Tipton stepped right into the role we expected with the release of Brandin Cooks, turning 4 targets and 1 carry into 3 catches and 33 total yards. I expect him to continue growing and being a bit more featured down the stretch. |
