Week 11 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

What a fun week we had in Week 10! The Lions did their thing, the CMC chalk failed and our gross plays at each position all pretty much came through. Let’s just ignore the Rico Dowdle game (lol). We certainly aren’t perfect every week, but this has been an outstanding year where we’ve been awfully close very often.

I’m excited to build on that in Week 11, but I will *actually* have to be very brief this week. I vowed not to work on my vacation with my wife, but I owe you guys at least a much shortened version of this blueprint this week.

Reminder – the Underdog rankings and Betting blueprint are both out already for Week 11.

Also, make sure to check out that weekly DFS preview podcast with myself and Jordan Vanek where we talk through the slate every Thursday morning at 10 AM ET, resuming next week now that I am back from vacation.

The Chalk

If we are going to put tournament lineups together, we need to know who our opponents are playing. Here are the current highest projected owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders:

DraftKings/Fanduel

• QB – Josh Allen, JJ McCarthy
• RB – Rico Dowdle, Christian McCaffrey
• WR – Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• TE – Trey McBride, George Kittle
• DST – CLE, JAX

QB

I really do not see a standout QB this week, but there are a couple of things standing out from an ownership and pricing perspective. Brock Purdy is back for the 49ers, he’s affordable in all formats in a great matchup and all his weapons are healthy, yet he is not particularly popular. He projects great, you don’t even necessarily *have* to stack him, and there are bring back options on the Cardinals side that are very clear if you choose to go that route.

It’s also quite interesting that neither QB in the co-highest total game of the week which we already saw shootout once are not popular at all. Sure, they’re boring 40 plus year old pocket passers, but I’m not exactly sure what more Joe Flacco has to do fantasy wise to pick up some steam. The weather isn’t great, but it sounds like just a bit more gusty wind early in the game.

Josh Allen is also clearly not sneaky, but this is a pretty major eruption spot. The Bucs set out to stuff the run every week, and their offense can score on this Bills defense. The Bills are looking to shake things up on offense after a woeful loss last week to Miami, and his stacking partners are cheap against a pass funnel defense that gives up lots of explosive plays.

Lastly, this game sets up as a Josh Jacobs spot, but these things can be fluky. It’s also a great spot for Love and the pass game to get going, and there are a couple clear stacking partners in Doubs and Watson.

RB

Running back is where there appear to be a bunch of really strong plays, and the top owned and top projected options look extremely strong. I don’t see a huge need to get too cute here. Both RBs in that shootout Bengals game (Chase Brown / Jaylen Warren) offer an elite combination of floor, ceiling, pass catching upside and matchup, and they should benefit a bit from said wind. They are the field’s favorite plays, but that’s well deserved.

I despise playing Josh Jacobs, and I am not sure he is ever a must, but if we are going to get one of those 100/3 games, this is probably the week. He squares off with the worst run defense in the league, and the game script should be ideal with a walking turnover playing QB for the Giants against a solid Packers defense.

I will say, I’m passing on CMC again this week, and it’s not really even too much of a decision. He’s *fine*, but we discussed last week where his ceiling games have come from, and this isn’t one of those spots (again). The position is also simply too deep with many cheaper options that really pop.

Some of those options would be Aaron Jones, Woody Marks, Rico Dowdle, RJ Harvey and Kimani Vidal. All of these players have taken over their backfield in different ways, and while they all have their different pros and cons, they have mega upside and great prices. If Jeffery Simmons plays for the Titans, I will knock Marks down probably to the bottom of this group, and as much as I love RJ Harvey, the Chiefs have limited rushing production very well, despite grading out ‘meh’ from an EPA perspective. I feel like I’m going to feel foolish later today no matter what I do with Harvey, but there’s also always the weird Sean Payton obsession with Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin to worry about.

WR

As much as I love the RB position (please don’t tell anyone I said that), wide receiver leaves a lot to be desired. But that context is also important to roster construction. I’d really like to get to as many of the superstar WRs as I can because the mid to lower tier is really lacking this week. We can use that RB value (and QB) to get the nuclear upside of the star WRs (Chase, JSN, Puka, JJ, Rashee, London, etc) and not have to wade too far into the Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Wan’Dale Robinson type waters.

Sure, those guys are stepping into a lot more opportunity, and if you have a team that makes sense with them, I do not think these are “bad” options. But when the field assigns a boat load of extra volume to receivers who are probably not deserving of that type of trust from a talent perspective, it’s one I really prefer to avoid rather than dive into unless I’ve really built a team that structures itself around them having a monster game.

Just looking at ownership, I am pretty confident my favorite receivers are the two Rams. The Seahawks have a strong defense, but they are a major, major pass funnel. You simply cannot run on them, and I think Seattle can have enough success offensively to make this game pretty fun. We know the Rams throw to basically just their two stud WRs, and yet they are FAR lower owned (and cheaper in drafts) than so many of the other elite spend ups.

Lastly, I will just say that it sounds like Keon Coleman is going to be a healthy scratch for the Bills, and that leaves a bunch of opportunity for Josh Palmer and Tyrell Shavers on the outside (pending Gabe Davis’s role LOL), and Khalil Shakir could just rack up targets. The Bucs are a major pass funnel, but the Bills pass catchers aren’t generating any interest here on DK/FD. We’ve also got nice pricing and huge upside on the Packers WRs in a big time spot, particularly Christian Watson as a downfield HR threat.

TE

Clearly Trey McBride is going to be the center of the Cardinals offensive universe today. He’s also in a great matchup with the Niners defense. His floor is so high, but so is his ownership. And it’s not as if the 49ers are unaware that he is the only good player left on this Cardinals offense. He’s awesome, but he’s nearly triple the ownership of any other TE on DraftKings.com, and there are some pretty real concerns about this Cardinals offense today.

Beyond McBride, TE is really wide open with a bunch of options at all price points. I actually am a bit surprised to see such low ownership on Dawson Knox without Dalton Kincaid because that’s something the field often gravitates to. They’ve gotten sharper, though, because Jackson Hawes should step into a bigger role for the Bills, and he has been outstanding from a real life perspective this year. Small sample and all that, but he’s 4th in offensive grade by PFF among all TEs, including top in most grades, including receiving. He’s not going to drop 30 here or anything, but I wouldn’t be all that shocked if we see a couple TDs.

It’s a really good bounce back spot for Oronde Gadsden after a tough game last week, and George Kittle has absolutely thrived with Brock Purdy at QB. The field really likes Wan’Dale Robinson, but Theo Johnson could be the biggest beneficiary of no Slayton + Jameis at QB.

Finally, Pat Freiermuth had his one nuclear game in this exact spot earlier this year, and the Bengals are laughably bad against TEs. I wouldn’t want to chase that if the field was interested, but they certainly are not. And Cade Otton might be entering his annual “Cade Otton becomes elite for a couple weeks” phase of the year. He picked up 9 targets against the Lions, 21% target share against the Saints and then 12 targets last week against the Pats.

Stacks

• Josh Allen + Josh Palmer and/or Jackson Hawes, Khalil Shakir
• Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua and/or Davante Adams
• Brock Purdy + George Kittle
• Joe Flacco + Ja’Marr Chase + Chase Brown

Core Plays