Week 10 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

We have been so dang close in recent weeks, but particularly last week with the lock button Monangai and CMC, Drake London explosion and a big Alec Pierce game. But alas, close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. As you guys know, I am not a brief man, but I am going to be this week, as I am leaving for vacation on Sunday morning, and I do feel fairly strongly about just a couple of spots. It’s very easy, and I fall victim to this plenty, to try to talk about every single possible play and every game to feel as though you’re providing really thorough content. But in reality, you are often muddying up the waters both for yourself and for anyone that’s listening to you.

It’s definitely just flat out fun to talk ball and riff on DFS or draft strategy, but I’ve found that my own DFS play, and in turn my content, is far more successful when I really hone in on what I feel strongest about. Blending some of the best projected plays with some more off the beaten path options where the projections aren’t accounting for something – schematics, recent usage, injuries or even good ol’ fashion narrative street – is a way to still create paths to success in a world of projections and sims being used by all the top players.

Also, make sure to check out that weekly DFS preview podcast with myself and Jordan Vanek where we talk through the slate every Thursday morning at 10 AM ET.

The Chalk

If we are going to put tournament lineups together, we need to know who our opponents are playing. Here are the current highest projected owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders:

DraftKings/Fanduel

• QB – Josh Allen, JJ McCarthy
• RB – Rico Dowdle, Christian McCaffrey
• WR – Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• TE – Trey McBride, George Kittle
• DST – CLE, JAX

QB

With no real standout options at QB this week, the field is understandably defaulting to a reasonably priced Josh Allen against the Dolphins and a very cheap JJ McCarthy. I get the McCarthy projection, and technically any KOC QB with those weapons can put up some fantasy points, but McCarthy has really been one of the worst QBs in the NFL from a real life perspective. He’s a fun story and cool vibes and all that, but if I’m going to eat chalk, I would much rather the reliable floor and ceiling of Josh Allen. The Dolphins actually have not been a super great matchup for opposing passing games, so it would really have to be a script where Josh just goes full Josh because the Dolphins are pushing him to do so. In that scenario, he makes for a fun stack with Dalton Kincaid, but I do prefer a couple other spots overall.

The Detroit Lions, particularly the pass game, are what I’d say is my “flag plant” of the week. Call it narrative, but the Lions are one of the very few sort of predictable “hair on fire” offenses in the NFL. They are fresh off a brutal loss to the aforementioned Vikings where the offense played terribly. They head to Washington this week against the team who ended their season at home last year in the playoffs, and you just know Dan Campbell and co. have been playing that up all week as motivation. But even without it, the Commanders are a pass funnel defense (bottom 6 in pass defense EPA/play, top 11 in run defense) who also lost Marshon Lattimore to injury. They are the offense I think we should have the most faith in on the entire slate to put up a big number, and that should mean a bunch of Jared Goff touchdowns given the specifics of this matchup.

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I do think the Rams also hang a big number here, but the price on Matthew Stafford makes it very difficult not to pay a few bucks more for Allen or go down to Goff. It would not be shocking to see a huge Stafford passing game, however, against a Niners defense that has been rough with all their injuries and has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL, largely thanks to the loss of Nick Bosa earlier this year. Jaxson Dart and Caleb Williams do look strong here, but the weather looks a bit dicey in that game, and those two players do not scream “trust me in bad weather” to me. So if I’m getting off the beaten path (and cheap), I personally prefer Jacoby Brissett. The Seahawks are a very good defense, but they are also a heavy pass funnel. You simply can’t run on them, and their offense should force the Cardinals to play from behind. Brissett has enough rushing upside and very clear stacking partners that make him a strong, low owned tournament option.

RB

I simply believe in this Rico Dowdle thing. The Panthers run game has been outstanding, and Dowdle has been one of the best backs in football, sitting 2nd behind only James Cook in rush yards over expected per attempt. The Saints run defense has totally collapsed in recent weeks, and hilariously the Panthers should be expected to play with a lead. I’m not even sure that matters given how much they want to run, plus Dowdle’s solid pass game role, but it’s a very good spot for the Dowdle show to roll on.

Christian McCaffrey chalk is where I differ from the field. I get it, his role is about as good as it gets, but this is not the same CMC as years past. He’s been one of the worst runners in football, sitting 4th worst among qualified runners in rush yards over expected per attempt, and he’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. His pass catching clearly gives him a floor, but we don’t want just a strong floor at his price. We need huge games, and he has only posted those in smash spots like last week against the Giants. He’s been a bit more of a really high floor play in neutral or bad matchups, and the Rams defense is no joke.

I actually prefer the back on the other side of that game at cost, Kyren Williams. The Rams have largely gone back to heavy, heavy doses of Kyren in competitive games, which this should be. He has shown his pass catching (and overall fantasy) upside in this exact matchup earlier this season, and again, the Niners defense is very far from the old version that we didn’t love for opposing backs.

RB is very weak overall this week, so I have just two other options that I really like. First, this sets up nicely for Quinshon Judkins after the Jets traded away much of their defense at the deadline. They were already a poor defense, and while Sauce Gardner got the headlines at the deadline, Quinnen Williams is a huge deal up front. The Browns defense is ferocious and should be able to keep this game script in Judkins’ favor, and we know he has huge TD upside in those games, like we saw against the Dolphins.

Lastly, my “the projections might be very, very wrong” play of the week is Kyle Monangai. I actually hope D’Andre Swift plays otherwise Kyle will become super popular, but Swift is questionable with a personal issue. Ben Johnson came out and mentioned that he wants to ride the hot hand at RB, and that obviously could mean Swift in any given game, but there is no hotter hand than Kyle after his monster game against the Bengals. Sure, it was the Bengals, and he won’t do that in tougher matchups, but the Giants are somehow even WORSE in run defense than the Bengals. They are dead last by a WIDE margin in run defense (EPA/play), and have been the one team for Saquon Barkley to have a huge game against, among many others.

WR

If Jared Goff and the Lions are my favorite stack, you know I am going to lead with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. ARSB does not generally show the ceiling we really crave at his prices, but this is the type of game we can get the 10/120/3 type line that blows up the slate. Jamo has clearly been very disappointing, but this really sets up as one of those big games. You don’t want to fixate on one specific game or outcome, but remember when Tre Tucker dropped nearly 50 fantasy points on this Washington defense? That’s the big play archetype that Jamo presents, and his price is so cheap now that we don’t even need the truly monster game. One home run will do, and two would break the slate.

As awesome as JSN is, and he’s freaking incredible, next up is very much the Rams WRs. This trio alongside the Lions, including JSN, is a big reason why I’m opting to move down from CMC at RB (and probably down from Josh Allen at QB). A healthy Puka Nacua and Davante Adams against this Niners defense should be able to feast, and the target tree is so condensed that if Kyren doesn’t score multiple TDs, it’s almost impossible for one or both of the Rams WRs not to get home.

I don’t want to scoff at JSN, though. The Cardinals were the one team to really slow him down this year, but I trust in Klint Kubiak to adjust in the rematch, and JSN is currently sitting at a yards per route run that would break records (4.65!!!). This game has other exciting WR plays, too. Marvin Harrison looks exactly like the Marv we thought we were getting as a rookie now that Brissett is at QB over Kyler. He’s still very affordable, and the projections haven’t really caught up to how different he is with Brissett at the helm. Tory Horton was also injured in practice this week, which sets up new addition Rahsid Shaheed for an elevated role out of the gate for his new team after being traded to Seattle this week. He knows the offense, having played for Kubiak in New Orleans last year, and he’s a perfect, hand in glove, fit with JSN, Darnold and Kubiak and absolutely no one is considering him since he was just traded.

My “are you really going to play these guys?” receivers of the week would be the Cleveland Browns. It makes me nauseous, but the spot is really good against this pathetic Jets defense. Jerry Jeudy is dirt cheap now after a string of terrible games, and they welcome back Cedric Tillman this week. If there was ever a spot for Dillon Gabriel to actually be able to get the ball to these guys, it’s this week, especially with Harold Fannin and Isaiah Bond hurt.

TE

Trey McBride simply has to headline the TE position, as he’s also seen a nice boost with Jacoby Brissett at QB. It’s funny how he can finally have some big games and score some touchdowns when he has a QB who can actually see him down the field or in the end zone. If you can get him, he’s the top option.

But there are other intriguing plays here. Sadly, George Kittle is not my favorite, which is certainly a scary proposition. We know Kittle’s nuclear ceiling, but he hasn’t shown that level of cohesion with Mac Jones. They also really need his help in the blocking game against this vicious Rams front, and he’s going to be popular. That’s where I prefer a pivot to Sam LaPorta or Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid is just an Allen stacking partner for me, as we know Kincaid needs a game script where the Bills are throwing. He isn’t going to be on the field enough if the Bills are running all game with James Cook, but if the Dolphins can force Allen to be aggressive, Kincaid is his go-to guy. LaPorta is yet another fun stacking partner with Goff, and he is just as viable as the receivers to explode for a multi-TD game in this pass funnel matchup.

If Harold Fannin is good to go, the Jets matchup is very much a feast-able spot for the stud rookie, but if he’s out or limited, David Njoku may be the eruption on the Browns. Though I like the WRs, we know that Gabriel isn’t exactly pushing the ball down the field, and Njoku has a monster ceiling in a great matchup if Fannin is out.

I have to give a cringeworthy play at every position I guess, and Greg Dulcich would be that guy. With the Dolphins injuries, he popped up with a strong role last week, and there isn’t exactly a lot of target competition in Miami. They also might be playing from behind here, and Dolphins TEs are sneaky good fantasy options.

Stacks

• Jared Goff + 2 of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta
• Jacoby Brissett + Marvin Harrison and/or Trey McBride
• Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua and/or Davante Adams
• Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Core Plays

DraftKings & Fanduel

Drafts – Battle Royale (UD) & Drafters