Week 8 & Season-to-date Recap
Solid Week 8 with a total of +4.4 units, bringing us to a total of +16.7 units on the season. Through 8 weeks, we have had 5 winning weeks and 3 losing weeks, which is always a good reminder that it can be a bit of a roller coaster, especially when you are fairly frequently attacking ladder opportunities. But we will look to keep it rolling in Week 9.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 22-21 (+3.8 units)
- Props
- 53-45 (+12.8925 units)
- Total
- 75-66 (+16.6925 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 9 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN/HOU | Under 40.5 | -115 | FD | 1 | These are two of the very best, if not the best, defenses in football paired with two middling, or in Houston's case terrible, offenses. Nico Collins is back and Pat Surtain is hurt, but the Texans offensive line is in big trouble here, and the Texans defense has shut down nearly every offense they've faced this year. |
| 2 | CHI/CIN | Over 50.5 | -120 | FD | 1 | Bengals games have been a printing press to the over, particularly now that Joe Flacco is at the helm. It sounds as if Joe Flacco is playing on Sunday, but check back sunday to confirm. Bengals games have gone over this number in 3 of the last 4, including both Flacco starts, and 5 of 8 games on the year. The Bears secondary is banged up and vulnerable, which is particularly scary against this Bengals pass defense. |
| 3 | IND/PIT | Over 50.5 | -104 | FD | 1 | The Colts offense is simply a wagon at this point, and the Steelers defense is realy struggling. They're 8th worst in the league in EPA/play allowed, and now they're without critical safety Deshon Elliot this week. He's particularly huge for his role agaisnt Tyler Warren in pass coverage and JT in the run game, which spells disaster. But the Steelers should also be able to score against a Colts D who has given up at least 20 points in 5 of 8 games. |
| 4 | JAX/LV | Raiders ML | 126 | FD | 1 | The Jags lost Travis Hunter to injury this week, and BTJ does not appear to be fully healthy even after the bye. Meanwhile, the Raiders welcome back a supposedly full strength Brock Bowers, and the last time we saw the Raiders with a full strength Bowers, they got one of their only two wins over a solid Patriots team. |
Week 9 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning or over the weekend.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF/NYG | Christian McCaffrey o74.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 2 | The Niners have struggled to run the football much of this year, but this is an eruption spot for CMC on the ground. George Kittle being back is sneaky big for their run game, and they draw the worst run defense in the league. The Giants are dead last in EPA/play to opposing run games by a wide margin, and the game script should favor CMC with the Giants losing Skattebo and Nabers. |
| 2 | SF/NYG | Christian McCaffrey 80+ rushing yards | 115 | 365 | 0.5 | CMC ladder |
| 3 | SF/NYG | Christian McCaffrey o90+ rushing yards | 190 | 365 | 0.25 | CMC ladder |
| 4 | SF/NYG | Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards | 280 | 365 | 0.25 | CMC ladder |
| 5 | IND/PIT | Tyler Waren o54.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | The Steelers defense has been shockingly bad this season, but they suffered a critical loss last week in safety Deshon Elliot. He's a critical piece of the defense, particualrly against TEs in the pass game, and we saw what happened when he left the Packers game with an injury - Tucker Kraft erupted for 143 yards. |
| 6 | JAX/LV | Parker Washington o39.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Travis Hunter is out, Brenton Strange is still out and BTJ has been banged up and struggling all season. This should lead to lots of opportunity for Parker and Dyami in the Jags pass game. They draw a great matchup against a pass funnel Raiders defense that has been 4th best in run defense EPA/play and 9th worst in pass defense. |
| 7 | JAX/LV | Dyami Brown o38.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Travis Hunter is out, Brenton Strange is still out and BTJ has been banged up and struggling all season. This should lead to lots of opportunity for Parker and Dyami in the Jags pass game. They draw a great matchup against a pass funnel Raiders defense that has been 4th best in run defense EPA/play and 9th worst in pass defense. |
| 8 | JAX/LV | Brock Bowers o49.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | This requires a little bit of a leap of faith, but all reports are that Bowers is back to full health after the Raiders bye week. The last time we saw him full strength, he dropped 100 yards on the Patiots in Week 1 despite only playing 51% of snaps. The Jags pass defense has struggled mightily (and now has no Hunter), but particularly against TEs and primary weapons, both boxes which Bowers checks. |
| 9 | LAC/TEN | Tyjae Spears o24.5 rushing yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Tyjae has been productive on fairly limited touches since his return, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on about 6 carries per game. He popped for 9/59/1 last game and Tony Pollard is reportedly on the trade block prior to next week's deadline. That should likely mean a little more Tyjae in the backfield for the Titans, and the Chargers have the 6th worst run defense in football. |
| 10 | LAC/TEN | Tyjae Spears 30+ rushing yards | 136 | FD | 0.5 | Spears ladder |
| 11 | LAC/TEN | Tyjae Spears 40+ rushing yards | 270 | FD | 0.25 | Spears ladder |
| 12 | MIN/DET | Jordan Addison o44.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Addison has 309 receiving yards in his 4 games since returning form suspension, with 2 huge games of 100+ yards. He clearly is a bit boom/bust, but the Lions are a great spot for a boom. They are still dealing with injuries in their secondary, and the Vikings should be forced to the air because of both game script and the Lions elite run defense. |
| 13 | MIN/DET | Jordan Addison 50+ receiving yards | 110 | FD | 0.5 | Addison ladder |
| 14 | MIN/DET | Jordan Addison 60+ receiving yards | 178 | FD | 0.25 | Addison ladder |
| 15 | BUF/KC | Dalton Kincaid o35.5 receiving yards | -117 | Caesars | 1 | Kincaid is a very game script and matchup based option because he earns a lot of targets and produces well on his routes, but when the Bills are not forced to the air, he simply doesn't play enough to put up big numbers. A matchup with the Chiefs is very ideal in this regard because we know the Chiefs will score, and the Bills won't be able to stick to their ground and pound game with James Cook, leading to a much higher volume game than usual for Kincaid. |
| 16 | BUF/KC | Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards | 178 | DK | 0.5 | Kincaid mini ladder |
