Week 7 & Season-to-date Recap
After a terrible week 6, we got back in the win column with a really strong Week 7, finishing +5.35 units. That puts us up over 12 units on the season, and we’ll see if we can keep the ball rolling in a week with 6 teams on bye and some overall gross matchups.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 21-19 (+4.9 units)
- Props
- 44-42 (+7.395 units)
- Total
- 65-61 (+12.295 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 8 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE/NEP | Under 40.5 | -105 | DK | 1 | The Browns are nearly the perfect under team, with an elite defense and a largely incompetent offense. Even if they are successful on offense, it's on the ground and through short passing, so the clock keeps on ticking. The Patriots have been solid on offense, but they've played a cupcake schedule with nothing like this Browns defense to date. The Pats do have a strong defense themselves, especially against the run where they have shut down every opposing run game thus far. |
| 2 | SF/HOU | Under 41.5 | -107 | Caesars | 1 | Houston is another awesome under team, especially in their current form. Their defense is truly elite, sitting first overall in the NFL in EPA/play by a wide margin. With the 49ers still dealing with injuries on offense, that defense should be able to slow them down. On the flip side, the Texans offense looks... rough. They are 5th worst in the league (EPA/play) so far this year, and now they look to be without Nico Collins and Christian Kirk. Even against an uninspiring Niners defense, I'm not sure how they score. |
| 3 | BUF/CAR | Panthers +7.5 | -115 | Fanatics | 1 | The Panthers have won 3 in a row, and they're simply a better all around team than we expected heading into the season. The loss of Bryce Young is (sadly) pretty much a non-factor, but they should be able to run efficiently against this woeful Bills defense. They also have gotten healthier on both sides of the ball, including adding extra weapons to the offense with players like Jalen Coker returning. Their defense has actually been above average (13th in EPA/play), and they can hang around in this one, especially at home. |
Week 8 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA/ATL | Bijan Robinson o88.5 rushing yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The Dolphins have the 2nd worst run defense in the league via EPA/play, and that is not going to work against a superstar like Bijan Robinson. Michael Penix is banged up, so the Falcons should lean even more heavily on their ground game. In his two other plus rushing matchups (BUF & MIN), Bijan went for 143 and 170 yards, and the Falcons have allowed just shy of 160 yards per game on the ground this season. |
| 2 | CLE/NEP | Quinshon Judkins u67.5 rushing yards | -114 | DK | 1 | You simply cannot run on the Patriots defense. They have allowed a total of just 77 rushing yards per game, and even shut down highly efficient run games like the Bills and Panthers. Judkins is off to a great start, but this is a spot he should struggle to find room to run. |
| 3 | CLE/NEP | Rhamondre Stevenson u49.5 rushing yards | 100 | 365 | 1 | The Browns have the number one run defense in the league in EPA/play, and they're easily the toughest spot Rhamondre and co. have seen this year. Rhamondre has only gone over this number twice this season, against horrible run defenses in the Dolphins and Titans. |
| 4 | TEN/IND | Chimere Dike o26.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Titans look set to be without Ridley again, and they cut Tyler Lockett. The rookie 3rd round pick has continued to improve and grow role wise each week this year, culminating in a season high 69% of routes last week. The Titans have to throw to try to keep pace with the Colts, and Dike should get plenty of opportunity. |
| 5 | TEN/IND | Chimere Dike 30+ receiving yards | 100 | 365 | 1 | Dike ladder. |
| 6 | TEN/IND | Chimere Dike 40+ receiving yards | 195 | 365 | 0.25 | Dike ladder. |
| 7 | TEN/IND | Chimere Dike 50+ receiving yards | 320 | 365 | 0.25 | Dike ladder. |
| 8 | TB/NO | Cade Otton o37.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | Over the last 3 games, Otton is averaging 66 receiving yards per game. He has become a safety valve for Baker in an offense with serious question marks at WR. He should continue to be against a plucky Saints team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. With a super banged up group of pass catchers (Evans, Godwin, Irving, and hobble Egbuka), Otton should continue to play a major role, just as he did last season in a similar situation. |
| 9 | TB/NO | Cade Otton 50+ receiving yards | 162 | MGM | 0.5 | Otton mini ladder. |
| 10 | DAL/DEN | Courtland Sutton o59.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | My overall stance is the Broncos will need to take to the air against this Cowboys team, and just as everyone does against the Cowboys, they will have success. That leads to their entire WR core being undervalued here. Sutton is the lead dog, but Franklin has emerged as the locked in WR2 and Mims is highly efficient on 50-60% of routes. Franklin and Mims can get there in one play, and Sutton has gone over this number in 5 of 7 games this year, none of which were against the Cowboys defense. |
| 11 | DAL/DEN | Troy Franklin o32.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | My overall stance is the Broncos will need to take to the air against this Cowboys team, and just as everyone does against the Cowboys, they will have success. That leads to their entire WR core being undervalued here. Sutton is the lead dog, but Franklin has emerged as the locked in WR2 and Mims is highly efficient on 50-60% of routes. Franklin and Mims can get there in one play, and Sutton has gone over this number in 5 of 7 games this year, none of which were against the Cowboys defense. |
| 12 | DAL/DEN | Marvin Mims o27.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | My overall stance is the Broncos will need to take to the air against this Cowboys team, and just as everyone does against the Cowboys, they will have success. That leads to their entire WR core being undervalued here. Sutton is the lead dog, but Franklin has emerged as the locked in WR2 and Mims is highly efficient on 50-60% of routes. Franklin and Mims can get there in one play, and Sutton has gone over this number in 5 of 7 games this year, none of which were against the Cowboys defense. |
