Week 7 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

This feels like the weirdest slate of the season yet, which makes for a really fun Sunday. As you guys know by now, I am not exactly the most brief person in the world. So while I’m trying to be less long-winded, it’s nice that we have a bit of “simple” slate this week. Simple doesn’t mean easy, of course, but it’s just a 10 game slate with a pretty severe lack of high upside game environments. There are a few key decision points that we need to focus in on with each team we build, and it’s awfully easy to build a “unique” team.

Those key points would be:

1. The Cowboys / Commanders game, especially with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel out
2. The return of Rashee Rice
3. The Cleveland Browns in a great matchup, but disastrous weather

Whether you build one team or hundreds, how you approach each of those 3 elements will really decide your slate.

Also, make sure to check out our weekly DFS preview podcast with myself and Jordan Vanek where we talk through the slate every Thursday morning.

The Chalk

Here are the currently projected highest owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders:

DraftKings/Fanduel

• QB – Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes
• RB – Quinshon Judkins, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor
• WR – Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb
• TE – Tyler Warren, Trey McBride
• DST – DEN, NO

QB

In my opinion, it’s a very narrow QB pool in all formats this week. Certainly your 12 team draft contests on Underdog you may get backed into some deeper options, but I want to keep it to the “obvious” guys – Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes – in most draft formats, with a sprinkle of my guy Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, and Drake Maye. I would also include Jordan Love in my pool technically, but that’s a sprinkle of a scroll down.

With only 10 games (11 on Drafters) , it really is that simple. The game environments are simply not comparable to what we have in the Dallas/Washington game, and the matchup is so pristine for Patrick Mahomes with Rashee Rice upgrading his weapons. I am, however, utilizing some different skinny stacks with that secondary group (Nix, Maye, Jones) in DFS while using the pieces from those other elite game environments around them.

The most important part of the QB position this week is really just ownership related, especially combinatorially. You can absolutely lean into the more popular options in that big 3, but are you pairing Mahomes with Rice and other popular players? Which (and how many) of these value Commander pass catchers are you pairing with Jayden Daniels? CeeDee, Pickens or Ferg with Dak?

My goal this week is not to avoid really any of these situations, but my personal preference really is to build a unique stack (I.E. Nix/Sutton, Jones + 1, Love + Kraft, Maye + 1) and fill in the gaps around it with the top options from the other more popular games.

We do have the Sunday night game on Drafters, which changes things a bit. The problem is Jared Goff is never a super sexy fantasy option, and as good as Baker Mayfield is, he might be without all of Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin. I’m still leaning to these other options there, but Baker is awfully appealing against that Lions pass defense if any of his weapons can suit up.

RB

In most weeks, I am a pretty big fan of 3 RBs in DFS lineups and 2 in your drafts. But even in the half PPR contests, I am leaning a bit more WR heavy this week. First, the value lies at the WR position, with a variety of different cheap options benefitting from injuries to teammates like Deebo Samuel/Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley and Josh Downs. But there are also no real slam dunks either via matchup or price this week at the RB position.

We actually have to start with two lead backs on pretty horrendous offenses in Quinshon Judkins and Breece Hall. They are both popular in all formats, and while I can certainly understand why, they make for some pretty strong leverage points in my opinion. The Dolphins matchup is certainly elite for Judkins, but the highest owned RB (and pricey in drafts) on this Browns offense with this horrendous weather just does not feel optimal. If the Browns play with a lead, Judkins should see elevated snaps and touches, but he hasn’t exactly been some workhorse thus far, topping out at 58% of snaps so far this year. Yes, the Browns will lean on him in the bad weather, but the bad weather also is not ideal for efficiency or general scoring upside.

Breece Hall doesn’t suffer from the same weather issues, but the Panthers have quietly been stout against the run and the Jets are an epic disaster on offense. They were bad before, but they are now missing Garrett Wilson. Breece may volume his way to a good score, but in such a low scoring game with TONS of running on both sides, is he going to break a DFS slate? That feels unlikely as well.

I would just rather get away from these options in all formats to instantly start to separate myself from the field. I would rather prioritize the high upside games/game stacks, which will have me playing into some ownership, and we can’t eat that chalk everywhere.

Jonathan Taylor is where I’d start at RB. He definitely isn’t sneaky, but the Chargers run defense has been a disaster this season, and that is not a good sign when you have JT coming to town. They’ve been destroyed by very poor run games like the Browns and Dolphins. He’s pricey, but I want him if I can get him.

Saquon Barkley also makes for a really appealing tournament option. The Vikings have been one of the worst run defenses in the league, and the Eagles have lost two games in a row as they continue to not be able to get the ground game going. This feels like a a great spot, with Carson Wentz and the struggling Vikings offense on the other side, to get Saquon going. And if he can get through that first wave of defenders in the Brian Flores blitzing scheme, we could finally get one of those Saquon home runs.

I am not a fan of the spot for Javonte Williams, despite his elite role, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt looks awfully nice. The Cowboys run defense has collapsed a bit after a solid start, and the field is gravitating to Daniels and the pass game here after a down game from Bill. But he actually consolidated the backfield even more last week, with Chris Rodriguez getting zero carries. He’s simming quite well, and that makes a ton of sense.

Kimani Vidal was a bit of a fade for me until Hassan Haskins popped up on the injury report, and the role may be too good to pass up. Cam Skattebo also has a truly elite role, but the tough matchup has his ownership low. Rico Dowdle also makes tournament sense as the field moves totally away from him with the return of Chuba Hubbard. Again, that makes sense logically, but what if they continue to ride their hot hand after back to back elite performances?

That’s the group I really want to live in from JT down to Vidal, skipping over the chalkier options that have some pretty real concerns given their offenses and game environments.

I do just want to add that the Packers elevated a RB from the practice squad to the active roster today, and Josh Jacobs is questionable. If he were to miss, Emanuel Wilson would be an outstanding play. He’s a legitimately solid player, and the lateness of the news would keep his ownership in check.

WR

Part of the reason I want to a little different at these other spots we’ve discussed until now is because it’s hard to ignore some of these popular options at WR. But I actually want to start with Courtland Sutton. He’s my big differentiating piece and flag plant of the week. Bo Nix loves to push the ball down the field against man coverage teams, and that’s exactly what the Giants are. Sutton is his first read in many of those scenarios, and Nix has always peppered Sutton in games after a down week. He’s like his pacifier. There’s also another really fun narrative in play, and we are 1 for 1 on those this year. We nailed the David Montgomery narrative, and the Broncos are honoring the late Demaryius Thomas in this game. That’s very cool of the Broncos given DT’s career and impact on the franchise, but it’s a special moment for Sutton, who was very close to DT from the moment he came into the league. He was his mentor, and as silly as some of these things are, I am quite confident Sutton will be highly motivated for all these different reasons.

Given the way I’m approaching QB, RB and my flag plant on Sutton, it actually makes WR quite easy the rest of the way. I am not forcing Rashee Rice even at his DK price, but if he fits into teams, I am happy to play him. His volume is a bit of an unknown, so I don’t think we have to lock button him in his first game back, but I’m also not running away. The same goes for CeeDee Lamb. I am actively targeting him, but I will also happily play George Pickens if I need a sliver of savings or need to save some ownership.

If the weather holds in Chicago, Rome Odunze and Chris Olave will be options, but given the weather they are secondary plays for me. I actually prefer the WRs on both sides of the Colts/Chargers game. Josh Downs is out, and Quentin Johnston is back, but no one is interested here. Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, QJ and Ladd are all really strong tournament plays. If I don’t have JT and/or Vidal in lineups, I want to make these guys a priority.

Lastly, we have the Commanders receivers without Terry and Deebo. Chris Moore will likely play the most snaps, but he’s last in my priority list. I am extremely excited for both Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane. Lane is an exciting big play rookie, and I think he is the best fit to fill more of the Deebo role with his YAC ability. And Luke McCaffrey has been incredible to start his 2nd season. He’s only been a part time player, but he’s actually 4th in the NFL in yards per route run among WRs with at least 10 targets. If he’s going to play a lot more snaps in the best matchup in football with the Cowboys pass defense, that seems good! These guys are a major priority in all formats, and they’re super cheap and can make any lineup work.

TE

I totally get the idea of Tyler Warren. He’s awesome, he continues to produce and the Colts are now missing Josh Downs. But it’s just so hard to play him at these prices and this ownership. He really needs to have a huge game to be worth it, and while he’s certainly capable, I don’t know that I want to play into that ownership.

And that’s partly because there really are a lot of TE options this week. Trey McBride was unlocked by Jacoby Brissett, and the Packers pass defense can be suspect. I actually prefer McBride to Warren. And then we have Harold Fannin in a dream matchup AND no David Njoku. I’m extremely excited for my best ball bags, but again we have this weather issue. Are the Browns going to throw enough for Fannin to put up a big score in this horrible weather? I’m not x-ing Fannin out by any means, but he’s not the lock I was hoping for without Njoku.

If you aren’t so into the Commanders young WRs or Bill, then you can be boring and play Zach Ertz here. He’s boring, but he’s a legitimately good play. The target volume could be massive with all the missing weapons, and the inexperience of the WRs. I also think you can just keep firing up Jake Ferguson. His target volume goes down with CeeDee back, of course, but it’s really a 3 man show in the pass game, and he can absolutely put up a big game in this spot.

Michael Mayer is *ok* if Brock Bowers doesn’t play, but man the Raiders offense is a disaster, and the matchup is far from ideal. I do think Tucker Kraft is awfully intriguing in tournaments. The Cardinals have been below average in pass defense, and a bit of a pass funnel, so far in 2025. Kraft has the nuclear upside we crave at reasonable to low ownership, and the Packers could look to the air a bit more here with Jacobs banged up or even possibly out.

Stacks

Reiterating here that we have a pretty tight core this week from a QB perspective, which means we also have a tight core for our stacks.

• Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton
• Dak Prescott + 2 of CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens/Jake Ferguson
• Jayden Daniels + 1 or 2 of Zach Ertz, Jaylin Lane, Luke McCaffrey
• Daniel Jones + Michael Pittman and/or Alec Pierce or Tyler Warren
• Jordan Love + Tucker Kraft

Core Plays

DraftKings & Fanduel

Drafts – Battle Royale (UD) & Drafters