Week 6 & Season-to-date Recap
Welp, after a monster Week 5 we had our worst week of the season by far, specifically in the prop markets. We went 2-2 in our sides & totals, but the props were a bloodbath. Our Beaux Collins and Bill ladders were whiffs, Isaiah Bond was taking passes off the head, and Ashton Jeanty missed his rushing prop by the hook! Unfortunately the bad weeks will happen from time to time, and you just have to take it on the chin and keep moving, especially when you’re a bit of a ladder focused bettor. It’s nice to still be having a positive season after a disaster week, so we’ll get right back on that horse and see if we can’t crush Week 7.
With some of the WR injuries in particular, I’m quite excited for some of the lesser known WRs in the betting markets this week. so we may be having some solid ladder opportunities.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 18-19 (+0.9 units)
- Props
- 40-38 (+6.045 units)
- Total
- 58-57 (+6.945 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 7 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR/NYJ | Under 42.5 | -115 | DK | 2 | These two teams have no intention of throwing the ball, which is sort of important for generating a bunch of points in an NFL game. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, and the Jets are 7th lowest. The Jets also will be without their only viable pass-game player, Garrett Wilson, and the Panthers defense has been playing quite a bit better, so much so that they are actually 3rd in run defense DVOA through the first 6 weeks. The clock is going to keep ticking in this game, with a very minimal amount of points. |
| 2 | MIA/CLE | Dolphins u16.5 points | -102 | FD | 1 | The weather is going to be BAD in Cleveland on Sunday, and that's particularly bad for the Dolphins offense. They will be squaring off with an elite Browns defense in rain and high winds, and they are of course still without Tyreek Hill. |
| 3 | IND/LAC | Colts ML | 112 | FD | 1 | I never thought I'd be betting Daniel Jones on the road against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, but here we are. The Chargers OL is a serious problem and Joe Alt is questionable to play. The Colts pass rush led by Laiatu Latu has been solid, and the Chargers are also extremely banged up in the backfield. The Colts should be able to move the ball at will, especially on the ground with Jonathan Taylor against one of the worst run defenses in the league, and +112 is a really nice number for the state of these two teams. |
Week 7 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS/DAL | Jaylin Lane o22.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Terry McLaurin is out & Deebo Samuel is questionable. We know the Cowboys matchup is the "Coors Field" of the NFL, and the Commanders rookie got up to 42% of snaps last week, capitalzing on a huge downfield play at a crucial time for the Commanders. He should get some big play opportunities against this Cowboys defense missing Trevon Diggs without Terry, but he's their best fill-in for Deebo if he is out or limited, so we have a lot of upside here. |
| 2 | WAS/DAL | Jaylin Lane 30+ receiving yards | 140 | 365 | 0.5 | Mini Lane Ladder |
| 3 | WAS/DAL | Jaylin Lane 40+ receiving yards | 230 | 365 | 0.5 | Mini Lane Ladder |
| 4 | LAR/JAX | Jordan Whittington o39.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | No Puka Nacua this week for the Rams, which should mean a full time role for Whittington. Tutu Atwell is back, but he's best used as a complimentary player. Whittiginton played an eye popping 92.5% of snaps last week in a game where Puka played 51% of snaps. He actually led the Rams WRs in snaps! He earned 4 targets, finishing with 23 yards, and I expect far greater output in a game where the team has planned all week for no Puka. |
| 5 | LAR/JAX | Jordan Whittington 50+ receiving yards | 135 | 365 | 0.5 | Mini Whittington ladder |
| 6 | NYG/DEN | Courtland Sutton o56.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 2 | Sutton faces a very exploitable Giants defense, and Nix looks frequently to Sutton against man coverage, which the Giants frequently play. Nix has a real tendency to look to Sutton very heavily after down games like they had last week against the Jets, with Sutton averaging 10 targets in games following a low-target game (i.e. 4 or fewer). It doesn't hurt that this is a very real narrative for Sutton in Week 7, with the Broncos honoring the late Demaryius Thomas, who was his mentor from the moment he came into the league. He's cruised over this number in 4 of 6 games this year, with 3 games of at least 81 yards. |
| 7 | ATL/SF | Kendrick Bourne o44.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | I understand George Kittle is back (I'm very excited), but we can't discount what Bourne has done as the leader of this pass game. Jauan Jennings is playing hurt, and Bourne has exactly 142 receiving yards in back to back games with 20 total targets. Kittle will steal some of that, and the Falcons matchup is not a soft one, but this number is too low for Bourne's current role with Shanny at the sticks. |
| 8 | WAS/DAL | Luke McCaffrey o24.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Hilariously, McCaffrey is 4th in the entire NFL in yards per route run among all WRs with at least 10 targets. He's averaged about 38% of snaps the last 4 weeks, so he's still a part time player, but this is a part time player number. Terry McLaurin is out this week, and Deebo Samuel is truly questionable. He can go over this number regardless, which he has in 3 of his last 4 games, but he can obliterate it if Deebo happens to sit given the matchup with the Cowboys pass defense in a shootout game environment. |
