Week 5 & Season-to-date Recap
Bounced back with a killer Week 5, finishing up over 10 units and nearly sweeping the board. The only misses were the top two runs of the Lions team total ladder, which makes for a pretty awesome week. We’ll see if we can keep the momentum going as we’ve now built up over 16 units through the first 5 weeks.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 16-17 (+1.1 units)
- Props
- 38-21 (+15.555 units)
- Total
- 45-36 (+16.655 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 6 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI/IND | ARI +9.5 | -105 | 365 | 1 | I don't really think the downgrade from Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett is as big of a deal as the market does, and this is a lot of points to lay here. The Cardinals boast the 2nd best run defense in EPA/play in the NFL, which should help against Jonathan Taylor. That should force the game into the hands of Daniel Jones, who has been solid this year, but I"m happy to bet against a bunch of steam with Jones needing to cover 10+ points. |
| 2 | DAL/CAR | Over 48.5 points | 100 | ESPN | 1 | Cowboys games are what I refer to as the "Coors Field" of the NFL, meaning the environment breeds more scoring than others in football. The Cowboys offense can score in bunches, especially against one of the weaker defenses in the league in the Panthers. But the Cowboys have the worst defense in football, and their offense forces opponents to be more aggressive which leads to lots of points. |
| 3 | SEA/JAX | Over 47.5 points | -110 | DK | 1 | The Seahawks have actually operated as a top 10 offense in the league so far this year, and the Jags defense is a bit overrated from the softest schedule in the league in the first month of the season. Meanwhille, the Seahawks defense is solid when healthy, but healthy they are not. 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs are out today, which is what led to getting carved up by Baker Mayfield last week in a 73 point shootout. |
| 4 | LAR/BAL | Rams o26.5 points | -110 | DK | 1 | The Ravens defense gets *a little* healthier this week, but they were struggling mightily before their injuries. This is just a botom 5 defense that Sean McVay and co. can take advantage of both through the air and on the ground. There is only one team to not score at least 37 (!!) points against the Ravens, and that was the Cleveland Browns. |
Week 6 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI/NYG | Beaux Collins o12.5 receiving yards | -116 | DK | 1 | This might be the sicko play of the week, but the Giants are down bad at receiver in a game they are very likely to be playing from behind. They're touchdown+ dogs at home, and they'll be without Darius Slayton after losing Malik Nabers for the season. Jalin Hyatt continues to dissapoint, so Collins should get as much opportunity as he can handle after playing 38% of snaps last week (Slayton played 75%, Hyatt 47%). Collins drew 3 targets in his action and he might be a near full time player in this one, but he's certainly not lined like it. |
| 2 | PHI/NYG | Beaux Collins o1.5 receptions | 120 | 365 | 1 | Adding receptions to the Collins receiving yards. |
| 3 | PHI/NYG | Beaux Collins 20+ receiving yards | 155 | DK | 0.5 | Laddering Collins receiving yards. |
| 4 | PHI/NYG | Beaux Collins 30+ receiving yards | 310 | DK | 0.25 | Laddering Collins receiving yards. |
| 5 | PHI/NYG | Beaux Collins 40+ receiving yards | 550 | DK | 0.25 | Laddering Collins receiving yards. |
| 6 | NE/NO | Rashid Shaheed o45.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | The Patriots have been the biggest pass-funnel defense in the league this season. They are 5th worst in the league against the pass in EPA/play but 5th best in the league against the run. Shaheed is a home-run hitter, as we saw last week, and the Patriots might be without Christian Gonzalez on defense, which is one of the bigger swing pieces for a defense in the league. Even if Gonzalez plays, he likely covers Chris Olave, which should funnel some work to Shaheed. |
| 7 | CLE/PIT | Isaiah Bond o30.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Cedric Tillman was placed on IR, and Bond has stepped into the WR2 role for the Browns. He has pllayed the 2nd most snaps at WR each of the last two weeks, culminating in 13 total targets and 87 receiving yards. |
| 8 | LAR/BAL | Keaton Mitchell Anytime TD | 1800 | ESPN | 0.25 | Keaton is back in the mix for the Ravens, and they should be playing from behind here again. They gave Keaton a touch on every one of his snaps last week (4), but they continued to ride Derrick Henry even in garbage time. We could see Keaton's role continue to tick up during what is a disastrous stretch for the Ravens, and I don't expect Henry to take every garbage time touch every week if they continue to struggle in these games. |
| 9 | CAR/DAL | Bryce Young o32.5 pass attempts | -115 | DK | 1 | Bryce has gone over this number in 2 of 5 games, but those were the 2 games they played from behind against some exploitable defenses. The Pats really slowed them down (30 pass attempt game for Bryce), but the combination of the Cowboys offensive potency and lack of defensivue quality should force Bryce to the air while also allowing him to be a bit more efficient. |
| 10 | CAR/DAL | Bryce Young o206.5 pass attempts | -110 | Caesars | 1 | Bryce has gone over this number in 2 of 5 games, but those were the 2 games they played from behind against some exploitable defenses. The Pats really slowed them down (30 pass attempt game for Bryce), but the combination of the Cowboys offensive potency and lack of defensivue quality should force Bryce to the air while also allowing him to be a bit more efficient. |
| 11 | TEN/LV | Elic Ayomanor o30.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 2 | Ayomanor continues to operate as the WR1b/2 for the Titans, and this is a solid matchup for a spike week from him. The Raiders are an extreme pass funnel with a top 5 run defense paired with a bottom 5 pass defense (via EPA/play), and the rookie went over this number in 3 straight before a down week 5. |
| 12 | TEN/LV | Ashton Jeanty o75.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Raiders offensive line struggles to get push in the run game, so it’s important for them to get a little softer front to get Jeanty into the open field. That’s exactly what happened in his blowup game against the Bears, who have the worst defense in terms of yards before contact allowed, and Jeanty buried them. The Titans are 5th worst in the NFL in that regard. |
| 13 | TB/SF | Sterling Shepard o30.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | No Godwin, Evans or Irving for the Bucs, and Emeka Egbuka can't do everything. Shepard is the WR2 here, and he's gone over this number in 3 straight games (2 of which Godwin played). 11 catches for 153 yards on 15 targets. |
| 14 | TB/SF | Sterling Shepard 40+ receiving yards | 148 | DK | 0.5 | Mini ladder on Shepard |
| 15 | TEN/LV | Elic Ayomanor 40+ receiving yards | 160 | 365 | 0.5 | Mini ladder on Ayomanor |
| 16 | CHI/WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70+ rushing yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Bill is slowly getting a larger share of the Commanders backfield, with Brian Robinson in San Francisco and Austin Ekeler out for the year. He rose to 48% of snaps last week and exploded with 150 total yards on 16 touches. He draws a Bears defense that is allowing an insane 6.1 yards per carry to opposing offenses through 4 games. Only one team last season allowed more than 5 yards per carry (Carolina), and the Bears are currently over 6. Chris Rodriguez is questionable after not practicing all week, and Washington is banged up at receiver, meaning they should lean on their talented rookie on the ground here. |
| 17 | CHI/WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt 80+ rushing yards | 135 | DK | 0.5 | Bill ladder |
| 18 | CHI/WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt 90+ rushing yards | 200 | 365 | 0.25 | Bill ladder |
| 19 | CHI/WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt 100+ rushing yards | 290 | DK | 0.25 | Bill ladder |
