Week 3 & Season-to-date Recap
In Week 1 we got off to a positive start, and Week 2 we hit the gas with a really nice week. Week 3 was unfortunately a step backward. Every week won’t be a winner, and two poor reads on the Titans bounce back and Tyler Conklin were the deciding factor. Excited to try and bounce back on a fun Week 4 slate and build upon a solid start to the year of +9.5 units overall.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 9-13 (-4.3 units)
- Props
- 32-18 (+13.805 units)
- Total
- 41-31 (+9.505 units)
Quick Housekeeping
My aim was to post this piece every Wednesday each week of the NFL season, but that is a bit fluid. It’s looking a bit more like Thursday is a more likely release on average, but I’ll still be striving for Wednesday each week.
Props do not always come out at that time, especially later in the season. We didn’t even get Harold Fannin and Dylan Sampson props until the weekend during Week 1. So, as things like player props roll out each week, I will be adding to the blueprint here. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 4 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL @ KC | Ravens -2.5 | -110 | Caesars | 2 | I love the Ravens in this spot. The Chiefs are simply not the same team we've seen in years past, and while the Ravens have gotten off to a 1-2 start, their two losses are very close losses on the road at Buffalo and Detroit. The Chiefs get Xavier Worthy back, but the offense has been rather anemic, and the defense is in for a whole new challenge against the Ravens. |
| 2 | NYJ @ MIA | Jets ML | 130 | DK | 1 | The Dolphins as favorites are auto fades for me. The Jets will get back Justin Fields, and they nearly took down the Bucs in Week 3 even with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. The roster (and vibes!) with the Jets is simply a step up from the Dolphins, and the price is extremely juicy against the corpse of the Dolphins organization. |
| 3 | TEN @ HOU | Under 38.5 | -109 | BetRivers | 1 | Texans games continue to be elite under spots. Their defense is pretty much what we expected as one of the tougher units in the entire NFL, and the horrible offensive line and lack of skill talent creates one of the weaker offensive units in the league. Through the first 3 weeks, the Texans have been the 4th worst offense in EPA/play, while the Titans have been 7th worst. |
| 4 | JAX @ SF | Under 47.5 | -120 | Caesars | 1 | The 49ers lost Nick Bosa, which is a big deal, but they've been a stout defense thus far in the early going. The Jags offense has not taken much of a leap thus far under new head coach Liam Coen, with struggles amongst the pass catchers & Trevor Lawrence. The Niners offense has been a shell of its former self as well, with the injuries mounting on that side of the football. If Brock Purdy returns, he's unlikely to be 100%, and there is a severe lack of skill talent here given all their injuries. |
Week 4 Props (& Pick Em)
As you can see, we’ve listed the sportsbook that you can find these particular numbers at for those interested. Of course, if you’d like to use any of these bets in a pick em slip on sites like Underdog, PrizePicks, Drafters (yes they have pick em too!), Sleeper or elsewhere, that works!
As projections, injury reports and more get locked in over the weekend (and new markets release), we will add props on Saturdays and Sundays at times. Check discord & twitter, and of course this post, for any updates!
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA @ ARI | Tory Horton o22.5 receiving yards | -135 | MGM | 1 | Horton continues to step up for the Seahawks passing attack in need of some support weapons for JSN. He has gone for 32 yards in back to back games with 4 targets in each after a goose egg in the opener. He only played half the snaps last week, but that was actually the status quo for all of he, JSN and Kupp due to the blowout nature of the game against the Saints. |
| 2 | IND @ LAR | Jonathan Taylor u21.5 rush attempts | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | JT has been a volume monster thus far, but the Colts have played with a lead in each of their first 3 games. This game projects to be a very different game script on the road in LA against a very good Rams team. The Rams should be able to score against the Colts defense, and the Rams D can force the Colts to take to the air to limit JT's overall volume, and he's only gone over this number once this year as it is. |
| 3 | CLE @ DET | David Montgomery u48.5 rushing yards | -118 | BetRivers | 1 | Montgomery popped up for a big game last week with some shocking long runs, but this is a far different spot against the Browns. The Browns defense has been truly elite, but particularly against opposing rushing games. They held Chase Brown to 21 carries for 43 yards, Derrick Henry to 11 carries for 23 yards, and Josh Jacobs to 16 carries for 30 yards. The Lions run game is great, but this is run defense is as good as it gets. |
| 4 | LAC @ NYG | Cam Skattebo o2.5 receptions | -172 | Fanduel | 1 | The Chargers are near TD favorites on the road here, and Tyrone Tracy is out for multiple weeks in the Giants backfield. That injury opens up Skatt to take over the pass game role in this backfield, just as he did in Week 3 where he racked up 6 catches on 8 targets. He even caught 2 passes in both of the first 2 games of the season with Tracy healthy. |
| 5 | CIN @ DEN | Mike Gesicki o2.5 receptoins | -118 | Fanduel | 1 | Noah Fant is out for the Bengals on MNF, and that should force Gesicki into a greater role for the Bengals. The Broncos are a tough assignment, but the Bengals should be playing from behind on the road here, which should mean we get plenty of Gesicki as the pass catching tight end without Fant. |
