With the matchups locked in heading into the Play-In tournament, I wanted to share my updated NBA Playoff Bracket. Quite a bit has changed since my original bracket, and I think that has created some new strategic angles I’m personally taking in my drafts.

 

Let’s dive in.

 

Eastern Conference

 

Round One

 

Celtics beat Heat

Knicks beat 76ers

Pacers beat Bucks

Cavs beat Magic

 

Conference Semifinals

 

Celtics beat Cavs

Knicks beat Pacers

 

Conference Finals

 

Celtics beat Knicks

 

Notes:

 

Not a ton has changed for me in the East, but there are some minor moves, most notably the collapse of the Milwaukee Bucks. The latest report is that Giannis is “very much in doubt” for game one, and this was a team I wanted to fade even with him. The Pacers were a sneaky tough matchup for them even at full strength, and I am picking the Pacers to win this one with the Giannis injury.

 

The other spot where I’m likely different than the market is on the Knicks. I don’t think the Randle injury changes much, and it’s actually allowed them to settle in to a solid team of wings and one big around Jalen Brunson. No one can stop Embiid, but they have two quality defensive centers to throw at him, and Jalen Brunson has become one of the best go-to offensive options in the league. The Sixers wing talent seems to be going super overlooked to me, as they absolutely cannot guard on the perimeter. I personally think the Knicks take that series (assuming the Sixers beat the Heat), and that has made them one of the top priorities in drafts for me given a great potential path to the conference finals after Philly.

 

Western Conference

 

Round One

 

Thunder beat Pelicans

Nuggets beat Lakers

T’Wolves beat Suns

Mavs beat Clippers

 

Conference Semifinals

 

Mavs beat Thunder

Nuggets beat T’Wolves

 

Conference Finals

 

Mavs beat Nuggets

 

Notes:

 

Let’s start with the hot take of the Mavs taking down the Nuggets in the conference finals. Naturally, I fully believe in the Nuggets and Jokic. He’s the best player on the planet. I just think this team the Mavs have assembled is perfect around Luka Doncic, and he’s playing at maybe the highest level of his career. They have the depth and optionality to play a variety of ways, which is important against Jokic, and I think the youthful depth for the Nuggets and a little more pressure on a guy like MPJ compared to last year makes them just a tick more vulnerable than maybe the market thinks.

 

There isn’t much else that’s a hot take here, but I can’t believe I’m the pro T’Wolves guy. I just think the market’s obsession with the Suns is wildly wrong. It’s a great team on NBA2k, but they simply don’t have the good for the playoffs. They don’t play enough defense, they cannot rebound, they turn the ball over and they take a ton of tough contested 2 point jump shots. I think Minnesota takes care of business pretty easily, and they’re my favorite bet of the first round as well as an underdog in the markets.

 

The Thunder are not a pick for me to make a run, but I do think both they and their first round opponent are appealing in drafts. They could absolutely make a run here given their path, or the Pels or Lakers could upset them in the first round.