A thought exercise I find helpful in fleshing out my Playoff Best Ball draft strategy is going team by team and documenting how I *think* I want to approach them within my portfolio. Do I want to be overweight, underweight or neutral on this particular team?

 

It seems like something we shouldn’t really need to, right? I know who I like, and I know which teams I think can make a run. But you find out pretty quickly when you put ‘pen to paper’ that what you think you want to do in your head doesn’t end up aligning with what might even be possible. Or you may hop in your drafts with strong convictions about certain players or teams, but once you outline them all and walk through your thoughts one after another, you actually like (or dislike) teams a little more than you thought.

 

All that comes together to help you understand how you can actually implement your thoughts in drafts. You may love the Celtics and Nuggets, and that’s your prediction for the Finals, but their prices in drafts don’t make that an easy thing to target. Or you may find that you are more bullish on some much cheaper Western Conference teams than you thought, which can lead you into less Nuggets, more Celtics, or something along those lines.

 

So below is my outline from walking through every viable playoff team and setting goals for how I want to handle them in my Playoff Best Ball portfolio.

 

Eastern Conference

 

Celtics – The Celtics are my favorite to make the finals, just as they are everyone else’s.  That fact makes them VERY expensive in drafts. That expensive variable is why it’s almost impossible to get unique combinations of the Celtics, which is really important. Nearly every Celtics team has either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown + Kristaps Porzingis. Then you get some addition(s) of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and maybe Al Horford on those teams. I don’t want to have zero Celtics personally, but I’d respect someone who did because you can get so many extra bullets to give you a huge leg up if they don’t make the finals. I do, however, want to be underweight the Celtics and be very specific about how I create unique combos with them. Verdict – Underweight

 

Cavs – The Cavs are the 2 seed in the East, but the market sure isn’t treating them like it. They’re finally back healthy, and the addition of Max Strus is a huge upgrade from last year’s team that get beat up by the Knicks in the playoffs. Despite their improvements and their elite level performance this year, we can get the Cavs very easily in our drafts, and my plan is to take that and run with it. Verdict – Overweight

 

Bucks – I did not think I’d be saying this at the start of the season, but the Bucks are similar to Minnesota (see below) for me. They are having a strong regular season from a wins and losses perspective, but it has not really come together for their actual performance, so much so that they fired their head coach midseason. They just have such major flaws with two things – their perimeter and wing defense, and the health of Khris Middleton.  Middleton is probably the most important player in the entire NBA to his team’s success in the playoffs because the Bucks are dead in the water if he is not playing at a very high level come April. I highly doubt he will be, and I’m not sure even that will give them the juice they need. Verdict – Fade

 

Knicks – The Knicks are my 2nd favorite team in the East to draft after the Cavs. And with their prices falling, they may become my favorite here pretty quickly. The Knicks still sit in 4th in the East despite some of the worst injury luck possible. We haven’t even seen what the post trade deadline Knicks can be at full strength yet, but I am fully buying this collection of talent. OG Anunoby may be the most underpriced player in the entire player pool, and he’s also the perfect piece for the Knicks team in terms of their playoff run. We know Jalen Brunson is the headliner, but he’s affordable. Randle’s injury has made him very cheap, and OG is barely even drafted despite the Knicks having a very real chance to make the finals, or at least make a run. Verdict – Overweight

 

Heat – The Heat have been that team every year for seemingly ever now that is underrated when the playoffs get here, especially in playoff best ball drafts. Yet again, we are getting pretty good value on the team that has made the finals more frequently than anyone. They’ve risen out of the play-in to 5th, which is a matchup with the Knicks in the first round. That’s my biggest issue with the Heat. I am going to invest in them for sure, but I’m simply higher on the Knicks, Cavs, and Celtics in the East. If they can get to a situation where they play the Bucks, I think things would get really interesting. Verdict – Neutral

 

76ers – I think the Sixers have a place in drafts because we can get get really cheap prices on them right now. But I’m not sure they were a true contender with a healthy Embiid, and we can’t guarantee he’ll be healthy for the playoffs. They also may fall to the play-in before he comes back, which adds another level of risk. Verdict – Sprinkle

 

Pacers – I sort of love this Pacers team, but mostly from a ‘where they’re headed’ perspective. I don’t know that they have the defense to win 4 games against the really good teams in the East, so I’m not going to go crazy here. However, they are just a half game out of 5th and 6th, and I think they could beat the Bucks in a series, or maybe even a version of the Knicks where they are not fully healthy, so I don’t want to ignore them entirely. Verdict – Sprinkle

 

Western Conference

 

T’Wolves – This seems almost too crazy to type, but I have found I have no real interest in Minnesota. The market largely agrees with me despite the fact they are currently the 1 seed, but even drafting in volume I only have so many combinations that I can acquire of teams I am really bullish on. Minnesota’s defense is elite, but you have to be able to score the basketball, especially in crunch time, to have success in the playoffs. The West is just so loaded, I want to divert my bullets elsewhere. Verdict – Fade

 

Thunder – Let’s start with this, the Thunder are for real. SGA is an MVP candidate, and their spread attack on offense with another emerging star in Jalen Williams and a critical stretch big in Chet Holmgren gives them the chance to beat anyone. I love the addition of Gordon Hayward to help with Josh Giddey concerns for the playoffs, but given pricing and my love for some of these other Western Conference teams, I can’t get overweight on the Thunder. Verdict – Neutral

 

Nuggets – The reigning champs are still awesome, but I do have tiny concerns about them this season. The loss of Bruce Brown is not insignificant. He was often closing games and playing 30+ minutes in the playoffs last year. They’ll always have the best player on the floor, and their starting lineup is amazing. But the market has priced them as if they’re basically the same level as last year, and the rest of the West has really improved. They’re not a fade, and I’ll take my Joker shares when I get the 1.01, but that’s the only time I’m targeting the Nuggets. Verdict – Underweight

 

Clippers – If you noticed the rankings, you probably quickly figured out my stance on the Clips. After settling in post-Harden trade, the Clippers have been arguably the 2nd best team in the NBA behind the Celtics. They’ve been absolutely dominant for stretches, and they’re built with the versatility and depth you need in the playoffs. The presence of Kawhi and PG also can take some of the burden off of James Harden, who has historically been a bit of a mess in the playoffs. Verdict – Overweight

 

Pelicans – I was so ready to fade the Pelicans, but somewhat similar to the Warriors, it feels like they’ve figured something out of late. With CJ McCollum banged up, they’ve moved to a sort of ‘Point Zion’ approach, which has yielded serious dividends. They are so cheap in drafts, despite the fact that they have risen up to 5th ahead of the Suns, and they have a super talented and deep roster. I am going to mix them in to teams where I need some late Western Conference juice, but they are a strong bet to draw the Clippers or Nuggets in the first round, or even fall to the play-in, so I’m keeping exposure limited. Verdict – Underweight

 

Suns – The Suns are that team that seems like a slam dunk to be overweight. They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. If Brad Beal is healthy, they might have the most dangerous offense in the league. They added Royce O’Neale at the deadline. And yet, with the strength of the West, I do not want to go crazy here. Can the Suns make a run? For sure. But they have 3 major issues – 1) their defense really doesn’t bring the physicality you want in the postseason. 2) They are still a really mid range heavy offense. And 3) the health of Beal is not just something we can totally ignore. I am a sucker for KD (and Book), and I’ll absolutely be drafting the Suns, but I thought I’d be way overweight on them a few weeks ago, and after drafting I prefer to remain more neutral. Verdict – Neutral

 

Kings – Maybe the easiest team in the entire league for me to decide upon. Honestly, I have no interest in any Kings exposure. I see no path to making a run, but I see a very easy path to losing in the play-in. Verdict – Fade

 

Mavs – My initial gut was “the Mavs are really overpriced”, and I’m comfortable fading or being way underweight. But the more I’ve thought about it, and the more I’ve watched them since the trade deadline, the more I started leaning the opposite way. They won 7 in a row (including whipping the Thunder and Suns), and they’re just 1.5 games out of 5th. I don’t think there’s a team in the entire league that wants to see this full strength Mavs team in the playoffs, but the consensus among sharp Best Ball drafters is that they’re overpriced because they’re currently in the play-in. Verdict – Overweight

 

Warriors – I really thought when these contests opened that I’d be out on the Warriors. It had been a disastrous season, and they showed very little promise. And then Steve Kerr made a huge lineup shift to their small ball lineup with Kuminga and Podziemski next to Draymond at center. They’re 8-2 over their last 10, but the problem is it’s going to be super tough just to get out of the play-in seeing as they are incredibly likely to be 9th or 10th. Verdict – Sprinkle

 

Lakers – They are almost assuredly in the play-in, and their offense is still not to the level where I think they can compete or make a run. But they can definitely get into the playoffs, and a series win would not be out of the question with their stars and defense. Verdict – Sprinkle